Middle-aged migrant workers out of the road: buying wigs to apply for youth

"This is my secret. I don't tell them about my general colleagues. Someone saw me and asked me, I will take a haha ​​to deal with the past." Zhao Zhongwei (a pseudonym) with a thick black hair on the first financial ( microblogging ) The reporter of the daily newspaper said. He worked as a maintenance worker at a hotel in Beijing, with a monthly salary of 2,600 yuan. He is extroverted, usually laughing and joking, and his colleagues like him very much.

Zhao Zhongwei's secret is the thick black hair on his head - it is a fine workmanship wig , spent more than 200 yuan.

"I thank you very much, and like the little old man. When you apply, the leader said, your skills are good, but you are too old. I quickly went to buy a wig to wear." Zhao Zhongwei said.

In addition to the wig, Zhao Zhongwei has a secret. For this secret, he is tight-lipped to all his colleagues. After the reporter promised not to mention his real name, he was informed of his secret.

This secret is about his true age. From the ID card, Zhao Zhongwei was born in 1970, just 42 years old. But in fact, he was born in 1963 and is 49 years old this year.

"I was wrong when I was doing the ID card. I didn't expect to help me a lot now. I don't even talk to anyone. If the unit knows, it will definitely not want me. Those who are running 50, the technology is good, who will What about it?" said Zhao Zhongwei.

The wig really helped Zhao Zhongwei to be very busy. Now he looks very spirited, and he looks like he is about forty years old. The wife was shocked when he first saw him wearing a wig and almost didn't recognize it.

Zhao Zhongwei has worked in many cities such as Nanjing and Dalian. He has an electrician certificate in his hand and is a skilled worker in property maintenance. But if it is not the age of the ID card, it is difficult for him to find a job in the city.

"We are like the age of my village, I have been a grandfather. In addition to a few working in the construction team, all the other homes." Zhao Zhongwei said.

Zhao Zhongwei and his fellow villagers are faced with a typical middle-aged peasant worker's dilemma – in the countryside, they are classified as surplus labor. In the city, they can hardly find a suitable job. The city and the factory welcome young people. Strong and sensitive young people.

Behind such a middle-aged peasant worker's dilemma is China's enriched labor pool is facing a depletion situation - the labor market is mostly a middle-aged and older labor force over 40 years old, forming a need with the labor market. The staggered, and ten-year-old shortage of migrant workers is only a representation of this subtle layer.

Labor pools are shrinking

Among many people's impressions, China, the country with the largest population in the world, has a super-rich labor pool, which is almost inexhaustible. Whether it is a textbook or an expert speech, such a statement is not uncommon.

Due to the persistence of the labor shortage, there is a divergence of views on the Chinese labor reservoir. Some experts still insist that China has a rich labor supply, and China's labor supply will not be a problem in the next decade.

Another point of view is that the total labor supply in China is still considerable. However, due to major problems in the age structure, the supply of young labor continues to decrease, and the surplus of middle-aged and old labor is bound to affect China’s economic and social development. A major impact.

Wang Qing, former chief economist at Morgan Stanley Greater China, collaborated with colleagues in 2010 to report on China's labor supply for the next decade. The report entitled "China's Labor Supply Still Ample before 2020" is optimistic. If calculated according to 2008 data, it is estimated that about 80 million to 100 million rural laborers can be transferred to non-agricultural industries or urban areas. . Considering the effective transfer of labor and the improvement of labor productivity, the situation of China's labor supply in the future will not be as bad as people worry, but will ensure sufficient supply.

However, in the eyes of other scholars, this conclusion is a bit too optimistic. The key point is that this research report It was done before the release of the sixth census data.

But the final data is far from optimistic. According to the data released in the sixth census, the average fertility rate between 1996 and 2010 was as low as 1.4, and according to the United Nations population growth rate, the fertility rate below 1.5 is an ultra-low fertility rate.

According to research by Yi Fuxian, a US demographer and author of "The Empty Nest of the Great Powers", since 2003, China's 20-39-year-old young labor force reached a peak of 450 million, and began to grow negatively; from 2009, 19 to 22 After the age of the population reached its peak, it began to decrease sharply.

According to the statistics of the Henan Provincial Department of Human Resources and Social Security, the growth rate of total labor supply in Henan Province has been decreasing in recent years. It is expected that it will “see the top” from 2013 to 2014. In 2007, more than 2 million new rural laborers were transferred to employment in Henan Province. In 2008, it was 1.8 million. In 2009, it fell to 1.03 million. In 2010, it was 1.05 million. In 2011, it was 1.02 million. 89% are transferred within the province.

Age structure secret

Zhang Yan, an associate professor at the Guanghua School of Management at Peking University, who has long studied the age structure of migrant workers, seems to discuss the issue of China's labor pool. The most important thing is not the total amount, but the age structure. In other words, the reservoir can provide a continuous supply of labor for economic and social development needs.

Zhang Wei believes that from the total amount, the opinions of the parties are more unified now, because it can be inferred from the census data and other relevant data. At present, there are still more than 100 million rural surplus laborers in China that can be supplied to the market.

But from the age structure, it is far less optimistic than just looking at the total amount. Last year, according to his own research, Zhang Huan put forward a conclusion that the current labor resources under the age of 35 in the rural surplus labor force have basically dried up.

Zhang Yi calculated such an account. In 2010, the number of rural employees in the country's household registration was 55.137 million. A total of 242.33 million migrant workers were subtracted from the country, and about 180 million agricultural laborers were subtracted. The number of rural surplus labor is about 130 million. However, according to the calculations made by Zhang Yu's age, the labor resources under the age of 35 with the highest labor productivity in non-agricultural industries are nearly exhausted in 2010.

In addition, according to the National Bureau of Statistics 2011 "Migrant Workers Survey and Monitoring Report", by age group, although migrant workers are still mainly young and middle-aged, the proportion of migrant workers under 30 years old is only 39% (16 to 20 years old) 6.3%, 21 to 30 years old accounted for 32.7%), the proportion of migrant workers over 30 years old was as high as 61%, of which 41% to 50 years old accounted for 24.0%, and migrant workers over 50 years old accounted for 14.3%.

According to the above report, the proportion of migrant workers over the age of 40 has increased year by year, from 30% in 2008 to 38.3% in 2011. The average age of migrant workers in three years has also risen from 34 to 36. “The age structure of migrant workers The change also shows that the 'unlimited supply' situation of migrant workers is changing."

The change in the age structure of the labor supply is the real reason for the ten years of the shortage of migrant workers. manufacturing What is most needed in the service industry is young migrant workers, and most of the labor pools are middle-aged and older migrant workers.

In addition to the 2010 "Migrant Workers Survey and Monitoring Report", Zhang Wei compared the data differences and concluded that the newly added migrant workers in 2011 were mainly middle-aged migrant workers over 40 years old. This further confirmed his previous judgment.

According to the data from the sixth census, China's population aged 0-14 years old only accounts for 16.60%, which is 6.29 percentage points lower than the 2000 census. According to the demographic statistics, a population aged 0-14 years old accounts for 15% to 18% of the population, and is less severely deficient. The declining birth rate means that the working-age population in the future will continue to decrease.

According to the characteristics of population production, even if the family planning policy is released, the population will not grow into labor until at least 15 years.

The realistic challenge of labor division

As the age of the labor force may exist for a long time, and may become more and more prominent, in reality, some traditional manufacturing industries have begun to relax their recruitment conditions and adjust their own human resources strategies. At the same time, another The problems that are ignored are from the new generation of migrant workers.

“The workers we recruit can be from 18 to 40 years old, and individual positions are relaxed to 45 or even 50. As long as the technology is good, it doesn’t matter if you are older.” On May 28, Changzhou Haotianbao Garment Co., Ltd. The man in charge of recruitment told this reporter.

Two years ago, many companies indicated in the recruitment requirements that they were under 22 years of age or under 25 years of age. Inquiring about this year's online recruitment information, our reporter found that many companies have relaxed their ages to 38 or even 40. Despite this, due to the particularities of some industries, there are still few alternative job opportunities for migrant workers over the age of 40.

The industry that needs a young labor force has to face another problem arising from the division of labor, that is, the new generation of migrant workers have insufficient technical level and their careers are too short.

On May 28th, from the Hebei Province, 37-year-old masseur Zheng Shifu is doing pedicure to the guests. I started to learn massage from the age of 20, and now I have become the backbone of the store, with a monthly income of more than 5,000 yuan. A newly opened Northeastern restaurant nearby, 32-year-old waiter Xiao Feng came to send a business card, hoping that the pedicure shop introduced guests to the meal. Xiao Feng went out to work for nearly ten years. He worked as a waterman, learned massage, and worked as a security guard. His current monthly salary is 1,900 yuan.

"You can't change it if you don't change it. You have to get a special technique. You look at me, there is this craft, I don't worry if I am 60." Master Zheng enlightened Xiao Feng. His goal is to open a shop on his own for a few years.

The different circumstances of Master Zheng and Xiao Feng are another key difference between the older generation of migrant workers and the new generation of migrant workers. Insufficient training and frequent job hopping have made it difficult for new generations of migrant workers to match the needs of some industries. According to the "2010 New Generation Migrant Workers Survey and Countermeasures" issued by the All-China Federation of Trade Unions, more than 60% of the new generation of migrant workers have not participated in any training since they went out to work.

The 2010 "Migrant Workers Survey and Monitoring Report" shows that the employment stability of migrant workers has gradually increased with age. Among the different age groups, migrant workers aged 16 to 20 are only 1.3% engaged in the current job for more than 5 years, and the age group with the highest proportion of 24.5% is the group of migrant workers from 41 to 50 years old.

What is the solution to the dilemma?

So difficult, how to solve the problem? According to Cai Wei, director of the Institute of Population and Labor Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the age structure of the population has undergone fundamental changes due to China’s long-term low birth rate. The growth rate of the working-age population between the ages of 15 and 64 is significantly declining and is expected to decline after reaching a peak of 996 million in 2015.

Cai Wei believes that for a long time, China has been concerned with how to solve the employment problem by maintaining the speed of economic growth, and the future problems will undoubtedly become: how to maintain the labor supply needed for economic growth.

Cai Wei proposed that the fundamental impact of the disappearance of the infinite supply of labor is that the economic growth model driven by capital and labor input can no longer maintain the competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing. Only by shifting economic growth to relying on the improvement of total factor productivity can manufacturing maintain and win new competitiveness.

The current labor-intensive industry shift from the east to the central and western regions will provide new labor supply and resource re-allocation efficiency. However, it should be noted that the government needs to speed up the reform of the household registration system with the main orientation of migrant workers as citizens, and eliminate the existing obstacles to the labor mobility system as soon as possible.

According to Zhang Jian’s research in Dongguan and other places, considering the current wage income level and the cost of living such as housing prices, migrant workers need to struggle for 30 years before they can settle in the city. This means that for middle-aged migrant workers, living in a city can only become an unreachable dream.

In the past, migrant workers were only a passing passenger to the city. After giving up youth and sweat, carrying a backpack back to the countryside is the only option. But the new generation of migrant workers are no longer as low as their fathers, and they hope to be justifiably a part of the city.

Zhang Wei suggested that the government needs to change the social security system such as social security attached to the household registration as soon as possible to facilitate the integration of migrant workers into the city. In the context of changes in the supply and demand of labor, the interests of migrant workers will no longer be only the interests of a group, but the supply of the entire labor market, the development of the entire economy and society.

Cai Wei suggested that the government should continue to expand the scale of higher education to increase the incentives for high school education, incorporate high school education into the scope of compulsory education, reduce the cost of education for the family, and increase the training of on-the-job workers, including migrant workers. Strive to significantly improve the skills of workers in a shorter period of time.

Zhang Jian analysis, in foreign countries, in the context of the permanent transfer of labor township-city, in order to enable middle-aged immigrants to survive in the city, when determining the wage rate, the low labor productivity of the middle-aged labor force will be taken into account, thus labor The age difference in productivity does not cause the labor force to be forced to return home. In China, the age difference in labor productivity has not been fully considered. This is the cause of the “migrant birds” phenomenon and the shortage of migrant workers.