Is there a "head" for this year's cotton?

Recently, Li Guoqiao, an old cotton farmer in Zhangwan Street Village, Caidian District, Wuhan City, called and asked the reporter what kind of cotton this year is. The editorial department also received a phone call from readers to ask about the market of cotton this year. The reporter interviewed the cotton experts and the bosses of the cotton breeding enterprises in Hubei Province to hear their analysis.

From the previous year to the end of last year, cotton has gone through the cold weather. After the cotton market opened in 2010, the purchase price rose from RMB 3/kg to RMB 7/kg, and the entire cotton market gradually lost its rationality. Last year, with the shrinking demand in the cotton downstream market and the increase in market supply after the stir-fried market, the cotton market plunged into “freezing points” from the “boiling point” and the price fell all the way to the bottom. Seed cotton fell from a maximum of 32,000 yuan per ton to 18,000 yuan. With the increase of labor costs and agricultural capital expenses, “cotton plagues and farmers” have cooled the hearts of many farmers, and many farmers have had the idea of ​​abandoning cotton and growing grain.

Insiders said that cotton, like some agricultural products, has a market cycle. The main reason for the plunge in cotton prices was the soaring cotton price the previous year. Farmers followed suit to plant and form the peak of cotton planting. Last year, the weather was well adjusted, cotton harvested, and prices fell. To get out of this “price fluctuation” cycle, cotton farmers and companies are looking forward to the state as soon as possible to introduce regulatory policies, increase cotton subsidies, safeguard the interests of cotton farmers, and stabilize the healthy development of the cotton industry. If everybody changes cotton and grows grain, it will inevitably cause a sharp drop in cotton production this year. Supply will exceed demand, and cotton prices will soar again.

Li Dalong, general manager of Huimin Seed Industry Co., Ltd. of Hubei Province, analyzed that according to the law of value, this spring cotton species should rise by about 20%. It is normal, on the one hand, because of the insufficient seed production due to the weather last year; on the other hand, it is due to labor costs. Increased substantially. Li Daolong said: "But at present, there will not be much fluctuations in cotton seed prices. Because last year's cotton market was not good enough to affect the enthusiasm of cotton farmers this year, some cotton seed enterprises may even sell cotton seed."

The Deputy Secretary-General of the Cotton Association of Hubei Province said that compared with 2010, the cotton price dropped sharply in 2011, and the country’s provision of temporary storage services has increased the reluctance of cotton farmers to repay. Due to the weak foundation of cotton production and the substantial increase in production costs, price fluctuations have caused the entire industry chain to suffer, and the impact on cotton farmers has been the greatest. This has seriously affected the enthusiasm of cotton farmers, and some cotton production areas have decreased, but The cultivation habits, land and soil quality, and climate in some parts of Hubei Province are more suitable for planting cotton. Blind changes may not be worth the candle.

This year, the farmers who choose to continue to grow cotton must have confidence, be ready for spring cultivation, be careful in selecting seeds, and select good breeds. Experts predict that cotton prices will slowly rise during fluctuations.