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The data on Monday was relatively limited, but the renewed warming of geopolitics led the market to break through. The price of gold further soared after the break of the 1300 mark, and silver also rose to a new high of more than two months. If the problem of the peninsula cannot be properly solved, it will become the main inducer of market fluctuations in the second half of the year.
The South Korean and Japanese governments said they had fired a missile near Pyongyang earlier and flew over northern Japan. The Japan Broadcasting Association (NHK) reported that the missile broke into three pieces and fell into the waters near Hokkaido, Japan. After the news spread, the market risk aversion sentiment rose sharply. Risk-averse varieties such as gold and yen have risen.
The weather agency predicts that tropical storm Havi will return to the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, although the wind will not rise back to the fourth-class hurricane, but the US energy heart Houston, the capital of Texas, may again face the rain. The governor of Louisiana warned that the worst is yet to come. Since Harvey landed in Texas last Friday, Houston has not seen floods for 500 years.
Informed sources told the Wall Street Journal that Saudi Arabia and Russia are pushing for an agreement to extend the crude oil production limit for three months. This will extend the production reduction agreement between OPEC and some non-OPEC oil producers until the end of June next year.
People familiar with the matter said that Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih and Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak discussed the issue of extending production cuts and reducing production at a meeting in St. Petersburg. Since the St. Petersburg meeting, the energy ministers of the two countries have been lobbying Other countries to support the extension of production cuts.
After the Japanese market hit a new high for more than a year, the RMB at the end of the session broke the 6.63, 6.62, and 6.61 points against the US dollar, and the offshore RMB against the US dollar rose above the 6.63 and 6.62 points. On Monday, the central parity of the yuan was raised by 226 points, against the US dollar at 6.6353, and the middle price of the previous day was 6.6579.
Data on Tuesday is also relatively limited, both German and French data and the US Confidence Index are expected to give way to geopolitical factors. The focus is still on the new developments in the news on the DPRK issue.
Data point of view:
August 29
Germany September Gfk Consumer Confidence Index
France's second quarter GDP annual rate initial value
US August Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index
Technical analysis
Dollar index
Short-term trend↓
Medium-term trend↓
Key support 92.10/92.00
Key resistance 96.20/97.70
The US dollar index continued to maintain its downward trend on Monday, and the exchange rate once again set a new low in July, further opening the door to the 92 or even the 90 mark. The news that is plaguing the US dollar is still the weakness of US economic data. Data, whether inflation or durable goods orders, suggest that the prospects for recovery are not as strong as expected. Geopolitical factors are also bad for the dollar. If the non-agricultural data for the new month is disappointing, the dollar may expand.
In the technical trend, the dollar remained weak after the gap opened lower on Monday, and the bears continued to expand the decline. Refreshing the new low means that the bears continue to control the initiative. However, the support of the 92 mark is still not negligible. After confirming the puncture, there is a chance to test the 90 level. The 100 integer mark begins to turn into a medium-term strong suppression level, and there will be a 95.10 challenge before then. Although there is still a chance for a rebound, the trend is that the dollar will be in a weaker pace. The bears remain dominant before any reversal signals appear.
Euro against the dollar
Short-term trend↑
Medium-term trend↑
Key support 1.1670/1.1600
Key resistance 1.1970/1.2000
The euro continued to expand its gains against the US dollar on Monday. The bulls once opened higher and opened higher. Although they subsequently fell back, they still firmly control the situation. Consistent with previous judgments, the euro will remain strong unless the European Central Bank “puts pigeons†in the fall, or if there is a huge turmoil in the financial markets. The ECB rate decision for the next two months may become the main point of view. However, if the geopolitical conflict further expands, it may lead to the deterioration of risk appetite, which will cause the euro to suffer.
In the technical trend, the euro against the US dollar rose on the big Yang line on Friday, closing at 1.19 level, and the gap of 1.20 after a further high on Monday is also a step away. The trend is still clearly in the bullish rhythm, and any callback is expected to stabilize in the early stage of 1.18. On the upside, the market will still face a relatively large challenge around 1.20, and will stand at 1.22 and 1.23 after standing. On the downside, the 200-day moving average has gradually moved away, while the short-term support has begun to turn to 1.1680, followed by the 1.1600 area. In the case where the latter is well supported, the long rhythm will be maintained.
GBP to USD
Short-term trend↓
Medium-term trend →
Key support 1.2800/1.2720
The key resistance is 1.2920/1.3000
The pound rallied on Monday and then stepped back to stabilize. The bulls widened their rebound. The main momentum was obviously the impact of the weakening of the dollar. In the past few weeks, as the expectations for interest rate hikes have weakened, the pound needs to be consolidated in the short term. However, as long as there is no unexpected news on the political level, in the medium and long term, the pound still has the opportunity to expand its rebound. Of course, it is necessary to take the lead in completing this adjustment and break back. 1.30 will be a signal to stabilize.
In the technical trend, the pound sterling against the US dollar after a wide shock after leaving a clear shadow line, the bulls broke through the 1.29 area means that the short-term downward pressure has significantly weakened. After the previous wedge break, the theoretical target position is near the starting point of the shape of 1.2820. After this goal is reached, the shorts may converge. As long as the mid-term watershed 1.27 is intact, the pound's gains will not end easily. The over-received 1.30 above will announce the end of the adjustment.
USD/JPY
Short-term trend↓
Medium-term trend↓
Key support 109.00/108.00
Key resistance 111.10/112.00
Although the USD/JPY gapped lower on Monday, although it recovered and lost ground, the demand for safe-haven at the beginning of the trading session on Tuesday still caused the exchange rate to start to fall sharply, and the 109-line short-selling dominant. Uncertainty is also one of the core factors in the counter-benefit of the yen, although the fundamental yen has no advantage at all. The medium and long-term exchange rate outlook is expected to depend on geopolitics and stock market ups and downs.
In the technical trend, the dollar against the yen on Monday was not warm, and the decline on Tuesday may be more reference. If the intraday decline can be maintained, it will mean confirming the completion of the big double head shape. Whether it can effectively penetrate the trend line support is crucial for the medium and long-term trend of the exchange rate. From a larger perspective, the double-headed shape of the central axis region will mean that the theoretical target may fall to the 104/103 level. The bulls need to recover 110.60 to stabilize, and going back to 112 will reverse the weakness.
USD/CAD
Short-term trend →
Medium-term trend↓
Key support 1.2400/1.2300
Key resistance 1.2760/1.2880
The dollar rebounded against the Canadian dollar on Monday, and the trend was different from the overall non-US currency, as the oil price in the day fell sharply. However, after the previous reversal peaked, the trend is expected to return to the weak. The duration of the impact of the hurricane on oil prices remains to be seen. If the oil price rises again, the downward pressure on the US and Canada will increase. For the Canadian dollar, the bigger challenge is whether domestic data can remain strong.
In the technical trend, the US dollar against the Canadian dollar rebounded on the bottom of the day, ending the six-day losing streak, but also closed out the Xiaoyang line, suggesting that there may be repeated short-term. However, before the market fell below 1.26, it basically announced that the rebound high point around 1.2770 has been established. After the rebound, the market may retest the support of 1.24/23. In the medium term trend, 1.30 has not been able to recover after the fall, so the bearish opportunity should be relatively larger. If you break through the 1.23 mark, you may continue to test the 1.20 level.
Australian dollar against the dollar
Short-term trend →
Medium-term trend↑
Key support 0.7840/0.7700
Key resistance 0.8000/0.8200
The Australian dollar rebounded moderately against the US dollar on Monday, but the safe-haven demand on Tuesday returned to short positions, and finally the long-term actual progress was limited, and it was organized around 0.79. After the Federal Reserve resolution last month, the Australian dollar has not been able to effectively stabilize the 0.80 mark. Therefore, this level of breakthrough and stability will be a necessary bull market conditions, after effective break, it is expected to be bullish to 0.83 level. However, if the Australian dollar is too strong, it may trigger the Australian Federal Reserve's verbal intervention.
In the technical trend, the Australian dollar continued to rebound against the US dollar on Monday, slightly rebounding to a new high, but the current gains have been affected by geopolitics, and the bulls are still unable to detect the main psychological suppression level of 0.80. The medium-term trend will not be reversed quickly. Before the bulls successfully broke through the one-and-a-half-year high, it means the trend and direction. There is no obvious technical suppression at the top. If it can effectively stabilize at 0.80, it will continue to attack further. Below 0.7860 will be the main point of view, after the break will imply that the overall market risk appetite begins to deteriorate.
Spot gold
Short-term trend↑
Medium-term trend↑
Key support 1300/1280
Key resistance 1336/1375
Gold rose sharply on Monday, and the bulls finally broke through and stabilized the 1300 mark. Monday's gains were not affected by geopolitics, suggesting that the market's breakthrough is still dependent on its own energy. Tuesday's gap is related to the news, so it may be weaker, and subsequent progress will become the key to the short-term gains in gold prices. In the long run, the US monetary policy and the debt ceiling issue are still the main dominant factors in gold prices.
On the technical trend, gold rose on the Yangyang line on Monday. A break of the 1300 level means that the bulls have started a new stage of upswing, and the 1330/40 area may become the main repressed area. After a few months of consolidation, the market's momentum and volatility are increasing, as long as it does not fall below 1274, it will maintain a bullish situation.
US crude oil
Short-term trend↓
Medium-term trend →
Key support 47.00/46.16
Key resistance 50.50/52.00
US crude oil fell sharply on Monday, as the market worried that the hurricane would lead to sluggish demand. However, Brent's oil price trend is relatively stable, suggesting that there is a certain divergence between the two, and the recent situation of continuous competition for oil prices has not completely ended. There have been no major changes on the fundamentals, but speculation that US crude oil production is approaching or reaching its limits may benefit oil prices, but whether capacity in other countries will fill vacancies is the key. In the medium and long term, the degree of global economic recovery will still determine the high rebound of oil prices.
In the technical trend, crude oil weakened on Monday, but the influence of the news was relatively direct. At the same time, the strong trend of oil distribution suggested that the decline of US oil still needs to be confirmed. There is no obvious bullish sentiment at the trend level. Only by refreshing the rebound and stabilizing the 200-day moving average, the bulls are expected to rise further. Downside, a break below 48 will be one of the signals to retry the weak, and then a breakdown of 46 will cause the trend to turn into a bearish trend.
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