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Today, the PTA market is infinitely beautiful. After a long period of silence, it finally succeeded in attracting everyone's attention! In the morning, Masukura reached more than 500,000 hands, setting a new high. I can only sigh that TA futures are simply against the sky. I also lament that the futures market is really profitable!
Figure 1. PTA1701 position increase and decrease chart
Calculate the morning closing date of the increase in 524,950 hands, according to the first 5 tons, Masukura 524950 * 5 = 2,624,750 tons, while the futures into the 524,950 * 4930 * (margin 10%) = 258,800,350 yuan of funds (simple rough Estimate), hundreds of millions of funds have entered the PTA futures market, if you can choose to live, I would rather simply. A teacup, a hut, an acre of good land, and money flowing into PTA today.
Today's PTA market has risen. In fact, there is no big change in the fundamental news. The only change is that market funds have entered, and the market speculation atmosphere has risen, which has pushed up the price of PTA futures. In the end, it is money, money, money, just like one. A ship traveling in the water, when the water level in the river rises, its main body will rise as the water level rises.
Figure 2. PTA1701 position and speculative chart
From the perspective of speculation, the speculative degree of PTA1701 has been below 1 during the period from July 4 to July 19, 2016. Therefore, we have seen the previous period of time, the overall futures market performance of PTA is not as good as other chemical products. For example, methanol, PP and PVC, etc., of course, PTA futures are difficult to rise, and it is related to the constraint of poor processing of PTA.
Figure 3, PTA monthly processing difference chart
In the first quarter of this year, due to the low starting load of PTA and the recovery of polyester load, the processing difference remained good, basically above 400 yuan/ton in the first four months; but after the month of April, the driving of Hanbang 2 line and the expected Jialong Under the bad driving situation, the processing difference was immediately suppressed to 300-400 yuan / ton, and the processing difference between July and September was also maintained at 300-400 yuan / ton. Now a problem faced by PTA is that there is a corresponding difference in processing The set of guarantees entered, which greatly suppressed the rising space of PTA futures, which is the constraint of poor processing.
So is the current surge in the PTA futures market bringing opportunities and whether it should follow suit?
For the opportunity brought about by the skyrocketing, we also mentioned that the rise of PTA futures today is due to the increase in speculative degree. In addition to causing the PTA futures to rise, there is also a point that today’s funds also make the PTA forward curve climb, correspondingly Different contracts also have the possibility of arbitrage.
Figure 4, PTA forward curve
Note: The long-term curve time on October 20 is 14:10 pm
From the graph, today's PTA forward curve continues to push up with the help of funds, but the range of changes between different dates does not match, that is, the slope is not smooth, at 14:10 pm PTA1701 has a change of 126 points, 1705 contracts have changed by 102 points, and 1709 contracts have changed by 94 points. Of course, the changes are mainly based on rising, then the corresponding butterfly arbitrage appears. For example, it is established on 1701 and 1709 respectively. With a long position in one hand and 2 short positions on the 1705 contract, at around 14:10 pm, this arbitrage strategy earns (126 108)-102*2=30 points.
And whether or not to follow the local tyrants to enter the current PTA futures market, it depends on whether the cost side can form effective positive feedback, that is, the TA period price rises, whether the upstream PX and downstream polyester products can effectively follow up, downstream, short-term The problem of proper follow-up is not because the production and sales of polyester fiber is good and the inventory is low. The polyester factory has a certain price increase, but it is worth mentioning that the previous period of the wire price has risen slowly, many fabrics and bombing enterprises. Production is already on the verge of loss, and the price increase has already shifted to the fabric link, but can it go up? It is not very good to judge at this time, and once the price of the fabric is unfavorable, it will inevitably affect it. The operating rate of downstream weaving mills, in this respect, the operating rate of water jet loom in some areas such as Changxing has shown signs of a slight decline. On the other hand, PX currently has a high inventory, and in the later period, new capacity in Asia is put into production, the market power is insufficient, and the capacity of PTA itself to be repaired in the early stage is about to resume production, so don't see such a large amount of money entering the PTA futures market. Funds in the upstream and downstream of the industry will also be chasing the spot and even downstream products.
Figure 5, PTA1701 hour line chart
From a technical point of view, the TA701 contract broke through the upper triangular pressure of the triangle and there was a heavy increase. However, the price hike to the front of the high 4940 was a wait-and-see. It is currently oscillating around 4940, and the follow-up is to first test the triangular upper rail. Still continue to pull up after the shock and still have to observe.
Before the receipt of the manuscript, the futures Masukura once broke the historical high of 600,000 hands, and the closing price was around 570,000 hands. The position was also near 2 million hands. The speculative funds and the game of industrial funds collided in today’s spark. splash. So, is the barbarian in the PTA market that has been silent for many years? Or is the barbarian entering the doorway that should not come? Then take a look at the next few days.
PS: I am just a spectator who drinks tea...
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