After the Bhumibol era, the Thai economy is uncertain.

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After the Bhumibol era, the Thai economy is uncertain.

Bhumibol has accumulated great prestige in the rule of the years, and has shaped himself into a spiritual "father of the nation", almost god

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Overnight, Thailand entered the black and white world.

On the morning of the working day, whether it is at the station, pier, train station or subway station in Bangkok, there are crowds of people rushing to work everywhere, but unlike the past, I only see a piece of black or white. People sea. Wu Sawadi (36), who works for the Bangkok Power Authority, said: "I will wear (black clothes) for a year because I am a civil servant, but also because I am a Thai."

Even commercial enterprises are no exception. On October 18th, the US Apple website in Thailand became black and white to mourn the Thai King Bhumibol Adulyadej.

Bhumibol Adulyade died last week at the age of 88. The Thai government announced that the country will enter a one-year mourning period, and television entertainment and sports events will be cancelled or small-scale.

Thai people buy black and white color clothes at clothing stores to show their grief over the dead king. Many people spontaneously came to the Grand Palace in Thailand to participate in mourning activities and make a final greeting to the King of Thailand. Some volunteers also provide bleaching and dyeing services for those who come to mourn outside the palace.

For most of the past seven years, Bhumibol lived in the Royal Hospital in the capital Bangkok. During this time, the Thai King Palace updated nearly 40 notifications about the treatment of the monarch, but this is usually only critically ill. The situation will not appear until the past. Therefore, when the authorities announced on October 9 that the king’s situation was “unstable,” everyone understood what would happen.

On the evening of October 12, a group of prayers gathered in the central courtyard of the hospital to pray, and many others wore yellow and pink fortunately.

The next day, the Thai people were told that the world’s oldest ruled monarch passed away.

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Bhumibol Adud was enthroned in 1946 and crowned on May 5, 1950. His life is also more legendary than the Queen Elizabeth II (who was enthroned in 1952), who was "long standby". The Thai people love Bhumibol and respect him as his father is like a god.

Due to the large number of people buying black clothes, Thai black clothes are in short supply. Even the Ministry of Commerce of Thailand said that it is necessary for sellers to prohibit the price of black clothes, otherwise they will be severely punished. "Black clothes may be in short supply for a while," but they will ask clothing manufacturers to increase the supply of black clothes.

Thailand is also one of the few countries where royal rulers still have real influence. In the constant cycle of political turmoil and coups in Thailand, Bhumibol is seen as the only force that can unify Thailand.

There are very few countries in the world like Thailand: Since the establishment of the constitutional government in 1932, Thailand has experienced 19 coups, and even the government is trying to tolerate or tolerate opposition. Since 2001, these oppositions have become even more tense. That year, the telecom industry’s billionaire Thaksin was elected prime minister. His campaign philosophy was to help the poor peasants who had not benefited in the decades of the rapid development of the Thai economy.

However, five years later, Thaksin was forced to go into exile because he was ousted by the army. In 2011, Thaksin’s sister Yingluck served as prime minister and vowed to continue the Thaksin route, but three years later she was deprived of her position in the coup. Subsequently, the military government took full control of the authority, opened up the technocrats in key positions, and placed heavy responsibilities on the military officers.

Through a clever path, Bhumibol strikes a balance between opposing forces—the king is seen as an arbiter between the rural poor and the urban elite, the former loyal to Thaksin and Yingla, and the latter to the military.

Bhumibol well balanced the fast-modernized country’s desire for democracy and the dictatorship of military leaders. He has repeatedly solved the very big crisis in the history of modern Thailand. For example, he used to mediate in the large-scale pro-democracy protests in 1973 and 1992 to plead for the restoration of civilian rule. For example, he signed a military appointment in 2006.

In the long years of ruling, Bhumibol has accumulated a great reputation and shaped himself into a spiritual "father of the nation", almost god. The portraits of King Bhumibol are displayed on the facades of public buildings, at the entrances of countless villages, in the rooms of millions of families, on the walls of almost all hotels. Any criticism and embarrassment of the king is strictly prohibited. Even most Thai people know nothing about other monarchs except Bhumibol.

Stability has made Thailand a major holiday destination, attracting foreign investment and opening up the long-term prosperity of export-oriented manufacturing. Since the 1980s, manufacturing, especially the electronics industry, automotive and auto parts, processed foods and chemical products have been particularly prominent. The automobile industry is one of its major industries, and many world-renowned brand companies have set up factories in Thailand.

In the 1990s, Thailand's economy grew by leaps and bounds, becoming one of the "four tigers in Asia" and gradually upgrading to the ranks of middle-income countries.

Political uncertainty damages the Thai economy

Thailand is also an important ally of the United States in Asia and a major player in the global economy. Thailand exports everything from rice to microchips.

In 2015, when the 87-year-old Bhumibol was hospitalized again due to illness, the US Atlantic Monthly published an article saying that the uncertainty of Thai politics such as heir issues has damaged the Thai economy, leading to a decline in household spending and exports. For decades, Thailand has been seen as an oasis in Southeast Asia, but now Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam are growing faster than Thailand.

The night before the death of the king, the news of the unstable symptoms of the king caused a large number of investors to sell stocks. Bangkok Bank Public Company is one of the nation's largest banks, down 1.9% last Wednesday, while Bangkok Airways fell 3.5%. Singaporean economist KrystalTan said the king’s “bad health adds another layer of uncertainty to Thailand’s already unpredictable situation”, “which adds to the burden on investors.”

On the day of the death of the king, Thai Prime Minister Ba Yu announced on television that he would enter a year-long mourning period. During this period, civil servants should wear plain clothes, and the public should not hold any celebrations within one month. This also means some entertainment. The location may therefore be closed.

After the market fell by 8% on the day, many companies hope to avoid long-term forced closures, and some multinational companies and international organizations are ready to let employees work from home in the next few weeks.

Amonthep Chawla, head of Thai research at Bank of Malaysia CIMB, said that “although investor confidence has declined and the fundamentals of the Thai economy have not changed”, he believes that when the situation is more certain, there will be funds flowing back to the Thai market.

Mark Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group, also said, “In this case, the market will have a decline due to uncertainty.” He also agrees that the market will recover.

Chu Jun waiting for the establishment of a temporary regent

In the televised speech of the day, Ba Yu also confirmed that the 64-year-old Crown Prince Maha Vajira will become the successor of Bhumibol, which also eliminates an uncertain factor that has been speculated by the outside world.

Wow Ji Lalonggong was the only son of Bhumibol and Queen Sirikit, and was established as Chu Jun in 1972.

Thai Deputy Prime Minister Vesano said on the 15th that Bhumibol’s cremation ceremony will be held as soon as one year later, after which the coronation ceremony of Maha Vajralongong will be held.

Weishanu said that Wahira Lalong is the successor to the throne, but since the Crown Prince said that he will wait for the right time to succeed, the Thai cabinet has not yet informed the Congress of the successor to the throne, and the succession procedure has not yet been officially launched. Under this circumstance, the chairman of the Privy Council, Prem Tinsulanonda, has automatically become a temporary regent.

Thai research expert Paul Chambers said that since the end of the absolute kingship in 1932, the successful military coup has reached 12 times, and Brum has planned or participated in five of the behind-the-scenes, the most recent of which was 2014. Overthrow the military coup of the Yingluck government.

The Thai Constitution stipulates that in two cases, the Regent King will be born: First, when the King is not in Thailand or for some reason can not take care of the state, the King will appoint one person as the temporary regent; Second, the king will die, the new king will not be enthroned. During the transition period, the chairman of the Privy Council served as the temporary regent.

Bing Ting Sula, the regent of the reign, is 96 years old and was re-elected as Prime Minister of Thailand from 1980 to 1988. Although he is awkward, he is physically tough and often attends royal activities and delivers speeches.

In 1920, Ting Sula, who was born in Songkhla, Tainan Province, was promoted in the army during the Cold War. In 1978, he was promoted to the commander-in-chief of the Army. Two years later, Ting Sula warmed up as Prime Minister in the silent coup of Bhumibol.

Ting Su La Wen served as Prime Minister from 1980 to 1988 Thailand achieved rare political and economic stability. After leaving office, Ting Su Lawen still gained absolute trust because of his loyalty to Bhumibol. He served as the chairman of the Privy Council and has always maintained a strong influence on Thai politics and the military.

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